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For the scenarios, we assume the same yield gaps for developing and developed countries, albeit data for the higher yield gap is reported for developed countries only . This is based on the assumption that technological progress likely leads to a convergence of agricultural productivity in developed and developing countries, both for conventional and organic systems. Higher yields for organic production in developing countries are reported in the study with low yield gaps , but the data from developing countries often compare optimally managed organic systems with traditional rather inefficient conventional systems, or are based on comparisons of non-conventional systems that however do not qualify as organic (e.g. the System of Rice Intensification SRI) with conventional systems. It can be assumed that optimally managed conventional systems would also perform much better, leading to similar yield gaps to those observed in developed countries.

Emission factors : Emission factors, such as for fertilizer applications or manure management, as well as per area soil erosion, deforestation pressure and water use are assumed to be identical between organic and conventional production. This is motivated by the aim to provide a conservative estimate on the performance of organic agriculture and the lack of robust data to motivate utilization of differing parameters between the two systems. Where the data allowed for differentiation, we assumed such, e.g. for energy use (CED) based on Ecoinvent 2.0 data.

FAOSTAT reports incomplete food wastage numbers only, and we therefore used the more detailed data from the Food Wastage Footprint , . This data provides food wastage shares for commodity groups and world regions, that are then applied to all countries and commodities within the respective regions and commodity groups . Wastage data is provided along the whole value chain from production to consumption and dumping (differentiating for five value chain steps: agricultural production, post-harvest handling and storage, processing, distribution, consumption; dumping includes GHG emissions from anaerobic decay of the wasted biomass), and the corresponding shares are added up to derive wastage shares at primary commodity levels. Scenarios with wastage reduction assume 25 and 50% less wastage, i.e. the wastage share for each commodity is reduced by 25% or 50% respectively. The scenarios thus trace effects from wastage reductions from 0% up to 50%. In the model, this results in a corresponding quantity of each commodity not being produced, thus leading to reduced input demand and impacts.

A couple of recent publications assess climate change impacts on yields 49 , 50 , 51 , Fine Jewelry Mens Stainless Steel Black Carbon Fiber Cross Pendant yvbRm
. They mainly focus on the most important crops (wheat, maize, rice, soy), and for most commodities no assessment is available. Furthermore, several specific aspects such as the potential inclusion of CO 2 -fertilization further complicate results. We thus decided to undertake a sensitivity analysis on climate change impacts on crop yields and to assume a broad range from an optimistic extreme of no climate change impacts on yields (as assumed in the reference scenario ) to a pessimistic estimate of no further yield increases if compared to the baseline. Some of the literature reports potential yield decreases with respect to current levels, but we decided to not include this possibility in the scenarios. We thus modelled scenarios with no climate change impact and full climate change impact reflecting zero further yield increase as extremes, and an intermediate scenario for illustration, which assumes that yield increases are only 50% of the reference scenario. Due to lack of data, we assumed animal yields to remain unaffected by climate change impacts.

Video: [email protected]: Gurriel cracks a grand slam to left field

SECOND BASE 1. Jose Altuve , Astros: 3,405,8152. Gleyber Torres , Yankees: 997,7243. Dee Gordon , Mariners: 528,2704. Jason Kipnis , Indians: 372,8855. Jed Lowrie , Athletics: 255,092

Altuve's place in the AL starting lineup is secure, while his overall vote lead stands at 286,709 over Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts . Torres, Gordon and Kipnis remain in the three spots behind Altuve, while Oakland's Jed Lowrie moved past Boston's Dustin Pedroia to regain fifth place.

THIRD BASE 1. Jose Ramirez , Indians: 1,811,9022. Alex Bregman , Astros: 1,050,3703. Miguel Andujar , Yankees: 963,6414. Adrian Beltre , Rangers: 590,2835. Kyle Seager , Mariners: 447,940

Ramirez's lead grew by more than 205,000 votes this week, giving him a comfortable 761,000-vote lead over Bregman, who surged past Andujar into the No. 2 spot. Ramirez is tied for second in the Majors with 24 home runs, one behind Boston designated hitter J.D. Martinez. Seager moved into the top five, replacing the Royals' Mike Moustakas .

Video: [email protected]: Ramirez drills an RBI double to deep left

SHORTSTOP 1. Manny Machado , Orioles: 1,272,2332. Carlos Correa , Astros: 1,135,1523. Francisco Lindor , Indians: 898,9774. Didi Gregorius , Yankees: 824,7105. Jean Segura , Mariners: 675,140

Correa landed on the disabled list with a back ailment on Friday, and while the Astros' star isn't expected to miss much time, it remains to be seen whether his inactivity during the final days of voting hinders his ability to challenge Machado. Correa picked up more than 30,000 votes on Machado this week, leaving a 137,000-vote gap between them. Lindor jumped back into third ahead of Gregorius, while Segura continues to round out the top five.

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OUTFIELD 1. Mookie Betts , Red Sox: 3,119,1062. Mike Trout , Angels: 2,666,9723. Aaron Judge , Yankees: 2,021,3484. George Springer , Astros: 1,141,6615. Michael Brantley , Indians: 1,093,3766. Andrew Benintendi , Red Sox: 1,071,1357. Marwin Gonzalez , Astros: 768,2818. Josh Reddick , Astros: 706,1459. Eddie Rosario , Twins: 666,10810. Mitch Haniger , Mariners: 652,56311. Brett Gardner , Yankees: 636,08712. Jackie Bradley Jr. , Red Sox: 506,99313. Aaron Hicks , Yankees: 483,57414. Nicholas Castellanos , Tigers: 469,57815. Tyler Naquin , Indians: 344,639

Betts, Trout and Judge continue to hold sizeable leads to be the starters, while the top seven spots remain unchanged from a week ago. Reddick and Rosario surged two spots each, knocking Gardner down to the No. 11 spot. Betts might be assured a starting spot in the AL outfield, but his chances of catching Altuve for the overall lead look bleak as the gap swelled from 123,453 a week ago to 286,709 this week. The only change on the list this week? Cleveland's Tyler Naquin , who replaced Seattle's Ben Gamel to return to the top 15.

By Natalie Wolchover |
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The late-18th century philosopher Thomas Malthus wrote these ominous words in an essay on what he saw as the dire future of humanity. Humans' unquenchable urge to reproduce, Malthus argued, would ultimately lead us to overpopulate the planet, eat up all its resources and die in a mass famine.

But what is the maximum "power of the Earth to produce subsistence," and when will our numbers push the planet to its limit? More importantly, was Malthus' vision of the future correct?

Earth's capacity


Many scientists think Earth has a maximum carrying capacity of 9 billion to 10 billion people. [ How Do You Count 7 Billion People?]

One such scientist, the eminent Harvard University sociobiologist Edward O. Wilson, bases his estimate on calculations of the Earth's available resources. As Wilson pointed out in his book "The Future of Life" (Knopf, 2002), "The constraints of the biosphere are fixed."

Aside from the limited availability of freshwater , there are indeed constraints on the amount of food that Earth can produce, just as Malthus argued more than 200 years ago. Even in the case of maximum efficiency, in which all the grains grown are dedicated to feeding humans (instead of livestock, which is an inefficient way to convert plant energy into food energy), there's still a limit to how far the available quantities can stretch. "If everyone agreed to become vegetarian, leaving little or nothing for livestock, the present 1.4 billion hectares of arable land (3.5 billion acres) would support about 10 billion people," Wilson wrote.

The 3.5 billion acres would produce approximately 2 billion tons of grains annually, he explained. That's enough to feed 10 billion vegetarians, but would only feed 2.5 billion U.S. omnivores, because so much vegetation is dedicated to livestock and poultry in the United States.

So 10 billion people is the uppermost population limit where food is concerned. Because it's extremely unlikely that everyone will agree to stop eating meat, Wilson thinks the maximum carrying capacity of the Earth based on food resources will most likely fall short of 10 billion. [ When Will Earth Run Out of Food? ]

According to population biologist Joel Cohen of Columbia University, other environmental factors that limit the Earth's carrying capacity are the nitrogen cycle, available quantities of phosphorus, and Fine Jewelry Shey Couture 1/7 CT TW Diamond Sterling Silver Necklace OwPjXw9Enn
, but there is a great amount of uncertainty in the impact of all of these factors. "In truth, no one knows when or at what level peak population will be reached," Cohen told Disney Disney Personalized Sleeping Beauty 14x36mm Name Necklace yghSkhxFH

b. Green and Brock’s () definition of transportation is the most frequently used conceptualisation of absorption in media-psychological research. It is considered a major gratification offered to readers of narrative and film viewers alike. It overlaps with presence in that it features a sense of being in the story-world, as well as a realistic and attentive imagery of details. The difference may be that as a metaphor transportation evokes associations with transition to or travel into the film’s story-world. Footnote 50 More than presence, the operationalisations of transportation entail personal relevance and participatory sympathetic feeling, amplifying the emotional quality of the experience.

c. Empathy is the common denominator for concepts referring to absorption in the inner life of fictional characters. Like transportation, it is seen as a major gratification in reading stories and watching drama and movies. Viewer empathy has been defined as perceiving, understanding and emotionally responding to character feeling in the seminal work on the subject by Zillmann (Zillmann, , 1996). Perceived similarity and sympathy for the character (grounded in moral attitudes) have been suggested and tested as determinants of spectator empathy in drama (e.g., Zillmann, 1996; ; ; ). Footnote 51 There is still a need to sort out possible forms of empathy specific to the canonical conditions of the cinema which may be quite different from situations in real life where we observe other persons. Footnote 52 Moreover, empathy with film characters can be less or more cognitively demanding. Novica Sterling silver wrap ring Magical Leaf iGLsIz
Identification (e.g., Cohen, ) seems to stand for complete absorption of the viewer’s self by a represented character. Footnote 54 It can be argued that empathy is the rule in film viewing while identification is the exception (e.g., Zillmann, 1995; Tan, , Novica Carnelian and quartz flower necklace Verdant Bouquet qtrhP
, ), as most mainstream film narratives are mainly geared towards provoking the former rather than the latter. According to Smith () they use 'alignment' techniques that promote perspective taking and allegiance strategies that foster viewer sympathy for the character while the distinction between self and character is unaffected.

d. Finally, flow (Csikszentmihalyi, ) is the odd person out in the series of absorption-like experience concepts reviewed here, because it applies not only to absorption in movies, narratives or games, but to any activities that stand out for a certain intensity and intrinsic reward as well. The rather simple idea supporting the concept is that a pleasurable state is experienced when the challenges inherent in an activity just match the person’s capacities. In the canonical setup of mainstream film (and mainstream audiences) this balance is generally realised due to filmmakers’ skilful presentation of interesting story-events, and the overlap of it with attentional, perceptual and cognitive routines that film viewers have acquired in the real world. Mainstream movie continuity film style facilitates flow a great deal as it tedns to minimize challenges posed by transitions from one view or perspective to another. Smith's () studies were discussed above as relevant to smooth continuity of visual attention, and I would also mention the research on comprehension of events by Schwann (2013; Garsofsky Schwan, )

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